Sudan Conflict Straining Fragility of Its Neighbors

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Highlights

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) commanded by General Abdel Fattah al Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) headed by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo has triggered the fragmentation of Africa’s third largest country with a population of roughly 47 million people. Sudan represents the largest displacement crisis in the world with almost 8.8 million Sudanese internally displaced and over 3.2 million Sudanese refugees.

The war in Sudan is widely considered one of the deadliest and most destructive in the world. As a result of the conflict, 41 percent of the population (19.5 million people) face acute food insecurity, including at least 135,000 people currently experiencing catastrophic food shortages (classified as IPC Level 5) while more than 4 million people are confronting emergency conditions. Expert estimates are that roughly 400,000 people have been killed.

The conflict between the military factions has thrown into turmoil a region that was already straining under record levels of humanitarian stress. Even prior to the outbreak of conflict in Sudan, there were more than 13 million people in Sudan and its 7 neighbors who were refugees or internally displaced (IDP). More than 40 million people in these countries were facing acute food insecurity. Resources to assist these populations will now be even further stretched.

Sudan was hosting over 1.1 million refugees from its neighbors, as well as over 3.8 million of its own internally displaced (out of a population of 45 million) prior to April 2023.

This reality underscores that each of Sudan’s neighbors is currently or was recently struggling with their own conflict or political instability. It also highlights the compounding effects that each of the region’s crises are having on one another.

The security environment is further complicated by the growing regionalization of the conflict with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) supporting the RSF and Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia backing the SAF. This has resulted in the establishment of a network of air bases in the region that are facilitating the delivery of materiel, including drones, which are fueling the sustained high pace of violence.

Humanitarian Catastrophe

Sudan’s Darfur region in the west of the country—the location of a genocide in the 2000s that killed an estimated 350,000 people—has hosted nearly 80 percent of Sudanese IDPs since the onset of the current war. El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, held an estimated 737,900 IDPs (out of a total population of roughly 1.5 million people).

The fall of El Fasher to RSF forces at the end of October 2025 after an 18-month siege, described by the UN as bearing the “hallmarks of genocide,” has had profound human costs. The RSF had encircled the urban center (which hosted some 250,000 people) with a 68-kilometer network of berms effectively creating what was called a “kill box.” Over 100,000 people were displaced from the urban center and surrounding villages. Yet, only a few thousand arrived at the nearest camp in Tawila, some 65 kilometers away. The fate of those still within the encircled city center is unknown. At least 60,000 are known to have been killed in ethnically targeted massacres in the immediate aftermath. As many as 150,000 remain unaccounted for.

Many witness accounts and images caught on video demonstrate RSF atrocities against civilians, including assaults, indiscriminate killings, and sexual violence. This follows a pattern of RSF actions following the seizure of territory in other parts of Darfur and in Al Jazirah State.

The fall of El Fasher has enabled the RSF to redirect its forces to the neighboring Kordofan region, leading to renewed fighting between the RSF and SAF there that displaced roughly 132,700 people between October 2025 and February 2026.

Famine has also been stalking the region. Before the fall of El Fasher, estimates were that 40 percent of the people in Zamzam IDP Camp (with a population of over 500,000) had been experiencing IPC Level 4 acute food insecurity (Emergency) and 20 percent were experiencing IPC Level 5 (Catastrophe/Famine). Similar famine conditions had been documented in Al Salam and Abu Shouk camps in North Darfur as well as in the Western Nuba Mountains. After the RSF seized the region, aid agencies reported that the rates of malnutrition of people (particularly children) fleeing El Fasher had been “staggering” and that the hunger crisis was likely to be worse than expected. At present, 14 areas in North Darfur, South Darfur, and South Kordofan are at risk of famine.

Combined with pre-conflict displacements, UN agencies estimate that there are now almost 9 million people internally displaced and more than 4.6 million Sudanese and non-Sudanese who have fled the country to Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Libya, and Central African Republic (CAR). These figures are surely an undercount as humanitarian access and communications with much of the country have been cut. The UN estimates that 25 million people (roughly half the population) need assistance.

Egypt

Egypt has been a major route for Sudanese refugees escaping from Khartoum. So far, it has received more than 1.5 million people, mostly Sudanese, according to IOM.  Egypt is a major transit and destination point for migrants leaving hardship elsewhere in Africa, hosting nearly 9 million economic migrants.

Egypt has been engaged in a prolonged dispute with Ethiopia over management of Nile River water access stemming from the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), further adding to regional tensions.

Chad

More than 1.3 million people, mostly Sudanese, have already crossed the border into Chad and tens of thousands more are expected as increasing lawlessness has been reported in Darfur. Following the fall of El Fasher, Chad’s border region is straining under the pressure of new waves of refugees fleeing Sudan.

Chad had already been hosting almost 600,000 refugees, 400,000 of which are from Sudan’s Darfur region. In addition, Chad has almost 593,000 IDPs due to its own instability. With a long legacy of autocracy under Idriss Déby, Chad has faced perpetual instability. Violent crackdowns against Chadians calling for a restoration of constitutional order have generated waves of refugees and internally displaced from this strategically important Sahelian country linking West, North, East, and Central Africa.

The United Nations and multiple media outlets have reported that the RSF is using Chad as a staging ground for UAE supplies and materiel in its assault on Darfur.

South Sudan

An estimated 929,000 South Sudanese refugees are reported to have crossed back into South Sudan, along with some 449,000 refugees from Sudan and other countries. South Sudan has been in a state of internal conflict  for most of the past decade. Fighting between the government and opposition forces has been escalating since February 2025, causing 1,000 casualties and a new displacement crisis of some 471,000 new IDPs and 199,000 South Sudanese refugees spread across DRC, Uganda, Ethiopia (including a surge of 100,000 who fled following the capture of Akobo County in March 2026), and Sudan.

Almost a third of South Sudanese have been forcibly displaced by conflict and natural disasters—2 million as IDPs and 2.46 million as refugees. Despite the conflict raging in Sudan, more than 638,500 South Sudanese have not returned. Of the remaining 14.2 million South Sudanese in country, 7.8 million are facing acute food insecurity including 73,000 in four counties facing famine—virtually all of which is attributed to conflict. South Sudan remains in a state of persistent crisis.

Reflecting the increased tensions among neighbors, SAF Minerals Minister Mohamed Bashir Abunommo accused South Sudan in May 2025 of allowing the UAE to establish an “aggression base” under the guise of a field hospital in Eastern Aweil, which borders the Sudanese state of East Darfur.

Ethiopia

Host of the third largest community of refugees in the region (after Uganda and Chad) with more than 1 million, Ethiopia was embroiled in a devastating internal conflict from 2020 to 2022, primarily involving the Tigray region, which borders Sudan. The number of internally displaced in Ethiopia is around 2.3 million, though accurate figures (particularly for the Tigray region) are not available. An estimated 15.8 million Ethiopians are facing acute food insecurity. Ethiopian refugees in neighboring countries total close to 160,000. This includes many Tigrayans who had fled to Sudan when the Ethiopian conflict started in November 2020. Since the escalation of fighting in Sudan, Ethiopian returnees comprise roughly 53 percent of the roughly 184,000 people who have crossed into Ethiopia.

CAR

Some 36,000 Sudanese have fled to CAR. They were joined by roughly 6,900 refugees from CAR and other countries. Armed group activity within CAR has increased over the past year, including an attack on UN peacekeepers in the country.

About 427,000 Central Africans are internally displaced and 890,000 have fled conflict into neighboring countries. Almost half of the population (some 3 million) of this sparsely populated country is facing acute food insecurity primarily due to conflict.

The United Nations Panel of Experts has found that the RSF is using CAR as a logistical hub for resupply and recruitment.

Libya

Over 155,000 people, mostly Sudanese, have managed to cross the remote Libyan border. Libya has long been a key transit country for migrants and refugees fleeing conflicts and repression from the western Sahel and other parts of Africa. An estimated 936,000 migrants are in Libya, many of whom are subject to abuse by human traffickers. Libya has also been facing an extended political conflict as militias linked to the eastern-based warlord, Khalifa Haftar, have repeatedly tried to undermine and overthrow the UN-backed government in Tripoli.

In June 2025, RSF seized from the SAF an area bordering Sudan, Egypt, and Libya. SAF accused fighters aligned with Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army of participating in the offensive. It further accused the UAE of using this area to supply the RSF with weapons and mercenaries.

Eritrea

There are few, if any, Sudanese refugees fleeing to Eritrea, which is itself a major country of origin. Nevertheless, unconfirmed reports suggest that maybe as many as 3,500 Eritreans in Sudan were forcibly repatriated to Eritrea. More than 664,745 Eritreans have escaped the country of 3.7 million. Forced military conscription, arbitrary arrests, disappearances, and torture are among the many abuses against its citizens attributed to the Eritrean government by the UN. Eritrea was also a combatant in the neighboring Tigray region’s conflict with the government of Ethiopia.

Eritrea’s President Afwerki has been providing political support to the SAF and hosting allied armed groups’ training camps.

Uganda

The spread of the Sudan conflict has also reached Uganda, with over 90,000 refugees from Sudan having arrived in Uganda since the start of the conflict. Uganda already hosts the largest number of refugees (over 2 million) in Africa, due to the instability in South Sudan and the DRC.